iPhone 5 May Divert AT&T Users To Verizon, Suggests Analyst

By Sumit Passary | Sep 03, 2012 10:00 AM EDT

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Verizon's larger LTE network may benefit from Apple's iPhone 5 launch, suggests a recent analysis. The launch would enable the U.S. carrier to attract customers and make them switch from AT&T.

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If Apple's long-awaited iPhone 5 comes with a standard 4G LTE connectivity then Verizon may get an edge over AT&T, suggests the analysis from Thomas Seitz, a telecom analyst with Jefferies & Co.

In his analysis, Seitz noted that "The carriers are at different stages of their LTE deployments, likely creating winners and losers when the LTE capable iPhone launches, in our view."

Verizon's LTE network currently covers around 230 million people across 337 markets. This figure is more than the combined number of all other U.S. networks. Additionally, by the end of 2012, Verizon is targeting to cover an extra 260 million people in more than 400 locations. On the other hand, AT&T is in the early stages of building its LTE network and reaches around 80 million people. The carrier is expected to add another 70 million people by the end of this year. "This network advantage could lead to a share shift towards Verizon, primarily at AT&T's expense" adds Seitz.

"AT&T has two other factors going against it in 2H12. First, the company sold (and consequently locked in) 9 million iPhones in 3Q10 and 4Q10, and many of these customers will be coming off contract. Second, AT&T raised its prices when it introduced shared data plans. Though its customers still have a choice to stay with the traditional plans, those who can move to the shared data plans may find that AT&T's price advantage vis-a-vis Verizon has shrunk. On the other hand, perhaps AT&T believes it no longer has to be less expensive," noted Seitz in his analysis.

The fabled iPhone 5 is expected to debut on Sept. 12. Time will tell if the iPhone 5 will extend Verizon's reach further in the U.S. and help the carrier extend its market penetration.

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